Testing for threshold effect in ARFIMA models: Application to US unemployment rate data
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
a new approach to credibility premium for zero-inflated poisson models for panel data
هدف اصلی از این تحقیق به دست آوردن و مقایسه حق بیمه باورمندی در مدل های شمارشی گزارش نشده برای داده های طولی می باشد. در این تحقیق حق بیمه های پبش گویی بر اساس توابع ضرر مربع خطا و نمایی محاسبه شده و با هم مقایسه می شود. تمایل به گرفتن پاداش و جایزه یکی از دلایل مهم برای گزارش ندادن تصادفات می باشد و افراد برای استفاده از تخفیف اغلب از گزارش تصادفات با هزینه پائین خودداری می کنند، در این تحقیق ...
15 صفحه اولInference and Forecasting for ARFIMA Models With an Application to US and UK Inflation
Practical aspects of likelihood-based inference and forecasting of series with long memory are considered, based on the arfima(p; d; q) model with deterministic regressors. Sampling characteristics of approximate and exact first-order asymptotic methods are compared. The analysis is extended using modified profile likelihood analysis, which is a higher-order asymptotic method suggested by Cox a...
متن کاملForecasting the US unemployment rate
The primary interest of this paper is in out-of-sample forecasting for the U.S. monthly unemployment rate. Several linear unobserved components models are fitted and their comparative forecasting accuracy is assessed by means of and extensive rolling-origin procedure using a test period that covers the last two decades. An attempt is made to link forecasting performance to the time domain prope...
متن کاملCensored Latent Eeects Autoregression, with an Application to Us Unemployment
A new time series model is proposed to describe observed asymmetries in postwar unemployment data. We assume that recession periods, when unemployment increases rapidly, are caused by unobserved positive shocks. The generating mechanism of these latent shocks is a censored regression model, where linear combinations of lagged explanatory variables lead to positive shocks, while otherwise shocks...
متن کاملTesting for Threshold Effects in Regression Models
In this article, we develop a general method for testing threshold effects in regression models, using sup-likelihood-ratio (LR)-type statistics. Although the sup-LR-type test statistic has been considered in the literature, our method for establishing the asymptotic null distribution is new and nonstandard. The standard approach in the literature for obtaining the asymptotic null distribution ...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: International Journal of Forecasting
سال: 2009
ISSN: 0169-2070
DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2009.01.004